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How is this forecast produced?

Most people who produce a surf forecast tend to use swell charts based on the GFS (Global Forecast System) computer model.
Now although these charts are updated 4 times a day and tend to be quite accurate up to about 3 days out, the swell charts that are produced from these are always 12 or 24 hours behind the latest GFS update, so in other words, every swell chart from the GFS available on the internet is out of date.
These include the NOAA/NCEP WAM data, Magic Seaweed, Wind Guru, Buoy weather, and various other swell forecasts.
So if you wonder why these charts seem to get it wrong so much, you now have your answer!

The method used to produce the forecast on this website is somewhat different, i do take into consideration what the GFS model is showing me but instead of using the out of date swell forecasts, i produce my own swell predictions usuing the RAW Data that GFS provides on a website called
Top Karten. Not only does this website give me the RAW Data from GFS but also from various other computer models, the most accurate of which are the UKMO (UK Met Office) and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting).
These charts are only updated 2 times a day but are by far superior to the GFS due to their accuracy.
Now all of these charts are viewed before a forecast is written, then various other details are taken into consideration, like the tide times, the tide height (neap or spring) and the swell period is a major factor too.

After i have looked at and examined all the data, i will then write a forecast, this is why the forecast is occasionally not updated because of the amount of time it takes!

The forecast success rate is about 85% during the winter, 90% during the spring, 95% during the summer and 80% during the autumn.

I hope this gives you a little bit more insight into the amount of work that goes into it!
ISLE OF WIGHT SURF AND WEATHER FORECAST
M
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J
A
S
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N
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6
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10
12
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20
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F
WIND STRENGTH

Calm = 0mph/ Force 0
Light = 1-8mph/ Force 1-2
Moderate = 12-18mph/ Force 3-4
Fresh = 19-24mph/ Force 5
Strong = 25-38mph/ Force 6-7
Gale = 39-46mph/ Force 8
Severe gale = 47-54/ Force 9
Storm = 55-63mph/ Force 10
Violent storm = 64-72mph/ Force 11
Hurricane = 73mph+/ Force 12
Please remember that the surf spots mentioned in the forecast do not usually break all through the tides. Each spot has its own tide that it is best on although the island is usually much smaller at low tide than at high with the east and south side being even less likely to hold a wave at low tide than the west side unless the swell is huge or coming from the East, Southeast, or South.
For more surf spot information please
CLICK HERE
D
E
G
c'
This is not deep water temperature, this is only the coastal water temperature
CLICK HERE
for LIVE weather data from around the Isle of Wight
This page may take a while to open if you are using a slow connection (slower than Broadband)

Click here for more tide times
The graphs below are for the tide times at portsmouth
EAST SIDE: Whitecliff, Sandown, Shanklin
SOUTH SIDE: Ventnor, Niton
WEST SIDE: Compton, Fields.
The rest you will have to work out for yourself
If you would like to advertise in this space, a small fee of £30 for a year, £18 for 6 months or £10 for 3 months will be required, please Contact: gail.sheath@btinternet.com
DATE
Mon 30th
WEEK 1 UPDATED        30/06/08 at 20:30am
EAST SIDE
SOUTH SIDE
small and choppy
WEST SIDE
Sunny spells and patchy cloud, feeling quite warm too
FURTHER SURF DETAILS
WEATHER
Quality & Rating
mod sw bec light
WIND
Tue 1st
light sse
v small and choppy
Wed 2nd
light-mod sw bec light
small and choppy
med bec large and choppy bec slightly choppy
A decent size west side swell although the onshore winds will ruin it somewhat at first but becoming lighter by the evening
Thu 3rd
light-mod sw
med and choppy
Fri 4th
light n
small and clean
The swell looks to be much smaller but also much cleaner. It looks best for the morning but dropping of loads during the afternoon
Still a decent swell coming through but still with onshore winds. It will be biggest during the first part of the morning, dropping a fair bit pm
Sunny spells and maybe the odd shower pm
A surfable swell, looking best for the evening at last light although it will be very small
A barely surfable west side wave although a small swell will be just about showing
Latest sea temperature taken from Sandown bay on:
  30th June......... 16.7C and rising slowly
Quality & Rating
Quality & Rating
Very warm away from the west, south, and east coast with sunny spells but increasing cloud with a small risk of a thundery shower pm
Maybe a few showers at first and then some sunny spells and feeling cooler
Possibly a few showers at first but then it will be mainly sunny with patchy cloud
SWELL SIZE

Tiny = 1ft or less
Small = 1-3ft
Medium = 3-5ft
Large = 5-7ft
V large = 7-10ft
Huge = 10ft +