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| How is this forecast produced? Most people who produce a surf forecast tend to use swell charts based on the GFS (Global Forecast System) computer model. Now although these charts are updated 4 times a day and tend to be quite accurate up to about 3 days out, the swell charts that are produced from these are always 12 or 24 hours behind the latest GFS update, so in other words, every swell chart from the GFS available on the internet is out of date. These include the NOAA/NCEP WAM data, Magic Seaweed, Wind Guru, Buoy weather, and various other swell forecasts. So if you wonder why these charts seem to get it wrong so much, you now have your answer! The method used to produce the forecast on this website is somewhat different, i do take into consideration what the GFS model is showing me but instead of using the out of date swell forecasts, i produce my own swell predictions usuing the RAW Data that GFS provides on a website called Top Karten. Not only does this website give me the RAW Data from GFS but also from various other computer models, the most accurate of which are the UKMO (UK Met Office) and the ECMWF (European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting). These charts are only updated 2 times a day but are by far superior to the GFS due to their accuracy. Now all of these charts are viewed before a forecast is written, then various other details are taken into consideration, like the tide times, the tide height (neap or spring) and the swell period is a major factor too. After i have looked at and examined all the data, i will then write a forecast, this is why the forecast is occasionally not updated because of the amount of time it takes! The forecast success rate is about 85% during the winter, 90% during the spring, 95% during the summer and 80% during the autumn. I hope this gives you a little bit more insight into the amount of work that goes into it! |
| ISLE OF WIGHT SURF AND WEATHER FORECAST |
| M |
| A |
| M |
| J |
| J |
| A |
| S |
| O |
| N |
| D |
| 6 |
| 8 |
| 10 |
| 12 |
| 14 |
| 16 |
| 18 |
| 20 |
| J |
| F |
| WIND STRENGTH Calm = 0mph/ Force 0 Light = 1-8mph/ Force 1-2 Moderate = 12-18mph/ Force 3-4 Fresh = 19-24mph/ Force 5 Strong = 25-38mph/ Force 6-7 Gale = 39-46mph/ Force 8 Severe gale = 47-54/ Force 9 Storm = 55-63mph/ Force 10 Violent storm = 64-72mph/ Force 11 Hurricane = 73mph+/ Force 12 |
| Please remember that the surf spots mentioned in the forecast do not usually break all through the tides. Each spot has its own tide that it is best on although the island is usually much smaller at low tide than at high with the east and south side being even less likely to hold a wave at low tide than the west side unless the swell is huge or coming from the East, Southeast, or South. For more surf spot information please CLICK HERE |
| D E G c' |
| This is not deep water temperature, this is only the coastal water temperature |
| CLICK HERE for LIVE weather data from around the Isle of Wight This page may take a while to open if you are using a slow connection (slower than Broadband) |
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| Click here for more tide times |
| The graphs below are for the tide times at portsmouth |
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| EAST SIDE: Whitecliff, Sandown, Shanklin SOUTH SIDE: Ventnor, Niton WEST SIDE: Compton, Fields. The rest you will have to work out for yourself |
| If you would like to advertise in this space, a small fee of £30 for a year, £18 for 6 months or £10 for 3 months will be required, please Contact: gail.sheath@btinternet.com |
| DATE |
| Mon 30th |
| WEEK 1 UPDATED 30/06/08 at 20:30am |
| EAST SIDE |
| SOUTH SIDE |
| small and choppy |
| WEST SIDE |
| Sunny spells and patchy cloud, feeling quite warm too |
| FURTHER SURF DETAILS |
| WEATHER |
| Quality & Rating |
| mod sw bec light |
| WIND |
| Tue 1st |
| light sse |
| v small and choppy |
| Wed 2nd |
| light-mod sw bec light |
| small and choppy |
| med bec large and choppy bec slightly choppy |
| A decent size west side swell although the onshore winds will ruin it somewhat at first but becoming lighter by the evening |
| Thu 3rd |
| light-mod sw |
| med and choppy |
| Fri 4th |
| light n |
| small and clean |
| The swell looks to be much smaller but also much cleaner. It looks best for the morning but dropping of loads during the afternoon |
| Still a decent swell coming through but still with onshore winds. It will be biggest during the first part of the morning, dropping a fair bit pm |
| Sunny spells and maybe the odd shower pm |
| A surfable swell, looking best for the evening at last light although it will be very small |
| A barely surfable west side wave although a small swell will be just about showing |
| Latest sea temperature taken from Sandown bay on: |
| 30th June......... 16.7C and rising slowly |
| Quality & Rating |
| Quality & Rating |
| Very warm away from the west, south, and east coast with sunny spells but increasing cloud with a small risk of a thundery shower pm |
| Maybe a few showers at first and then some sunny spells and feeling cooler |
| Possibly a few showers at first but then it will be mainly sunny with patchy cloud |
| SWELL SIZE Tiny = 1ft or less Small = 1-3ft Medium = 3-5ft Large = 5-7ft V large = 7-10ft Huge = 10ft + |